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Figueres vs Santfeliuenc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Figueres
Figueres
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Figueres40%
×Draw28%
Santfeliuenc32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueres
1.25
Santfeliuenc
1.09

Figueres creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

Figueres
1.04
Santfeliuenc
0.83

allows per match

Figueres
1.36
Santfeliuenc
1.45

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par
Santfeliuenc+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Santfeliuenc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Figueres or draw
68%
Figueres or Santfeliuenc
72%
Draw or Santfeliuenc
60%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+
18%
Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals
71%
Figueres 2+ goals
36%
Figueres 3+ goals
13%
Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
66%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
30%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)
55%
Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Santfeliuenc away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santfeliuenc attack 0.83 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Figueres scores more
40%
level
28%
Santfeliuenc scores more
32%

Figueres at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Figueres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Figueres 0–0 Santfeliuenc

Figueres and Santfeliuenc drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim in Figueras.