Figueres 0–2 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Figueres

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Óscar Gómez 70'

Carlos Martínez 50'

5/29/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Figueres35%

×Draw28%

Pobla Mafumet37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueresExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.22

Figueres

1.19

Pobla Mafumet

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 76 away

1.04

creates per match

1.07

1.36

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Figueres

1.04

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Figueres

1.36

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Figueres or draw

63%

Figueres or Pobla Mafumet

72%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

65%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+

15%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals

70%

Figueres 2+ goals

33%

Figueres 3+ goals

12%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

70%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

34%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)

49%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Figueres scores more

35%

level

28%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

37%

Pobla Mafumet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Victor Valverde← Iván Vidal

50'

Carlos Martínez

57'

Óscar Gómez← Jordi Oribe

61'

Jorge Torres← C. Treviño

61'

Marc Medina← Carles Gallardo

65'

Ricard Robledo← Daniel Molina

65'

Jordi Avilés← K. LKoucha

65'

G. Cardozo← Óscar Sanz

70'

Óscar Gómez

73'

Enric Maureta← Marc Granero

73'

Josep Soler← Angel Blanco

78'

Bernat Guiu← Carlos Martínez

Figueres

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Moisés Hurtado

36'▲Victor Valverde←▼Iván Vidal

61'▲Jorge Torres←▼C. Treviño

61'▲Marc Medina←▼Carles Gallardo

73'▲Enric Maureta←▼Marc Granero

73'▲Josep Soler←▼Angel Blanco

Figueres substitutes

ValverdeTorresMedinaMauretaSoler

Manager: Dani Vidal

57'▲Óscar Gómez←▼Jordi Oribe

65'▲Ricard Robledo←▼Daniel Molina

65'▲Jordi Avilés←▼K. LKoucha

65'▲G. Cardozo←▼Óscar Sanz

78'▲Bernat Guiu←▼Carlos Martínez

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GómezRobledoAvilésCardozoGuiu

Match Recap: Figueres vs Pobla Mafumet

Pobla Mafumet beat Figueres 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 29, 2021.

Goals: Carlos Martínez (50'), Óscar Gómez (70').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim in Figueras.

Figueres vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Figueres vs Pobla Mafumet