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Figueres vs Europa Fc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Figueres
Figueres
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Europa Fc
Europa Fc
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Figueres27%
×Draw26%
Europa Fc47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueres
1.03
Europa Fc
1.46

Europa Fc creates 42% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 42 away

creates per match

Figueres
1.04
Europa Fc
1.55

allows per match

Figueres
1.36
Europa Fc
1.02

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par
Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Europa Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Figueres or draw
53%
Figueres or Europa Fc
74%
Draw or Europa Fc
73%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+
10%
Europa Fc wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals
64%
Figueres 2+ goals
28%
Figueres 3+ goals
9%
Europa Fc 1+ goals
77%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
43%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)
36%
Europa Fc (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Figueres scores more
27%
level
26%
Europa Fc scores more
47%

Europa Fc at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Figueres 3–1 Europa Fc

Figueres beat Europa Fc 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim in Figueras.