Figueirense 1–0 Ferroviario: Result & Stats

Figueirense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ferroviario

Gustavo Ramos 57'

5/28/2022

Serie C · Round 8Estádio Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Figueirense52%

×Draw27%

Ferroviario22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.83

Figueirense

1.45

Ferroviario

0.83

Figueirense creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

1.30

creates per match

0.87

0.79

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Figueirense

1.30

Ferroviario

0.87

allows per match

Figueirense

0.79

Ferroviario

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

78%

Figueirense or Ferroviario

73%

Draw or Ferroviario

48%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

26%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

77%

Figueirense 2+ goals

42%

Figueirense 3+ goals

18%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

56%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

20%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

71%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 57 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.30 + Ferroviario defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ferroviario attack 0.87 + Figueirense defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Figueirense scores more

52%

level

27%

Ferroviario scores more

22%

Figueirense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Luis Fernando

25'

Fredson

31'

Emerson

38'

Vitao

51'

Gustavo Ramos← Gustavo Henrique

51'

57'

62'

64'

65'

65'

Mateus Anderson← Wagninho

70'

Ruy← Maicon Assis

71'

Andrew

80'

Bruninho

81'

Claudino← Rodrigo Bassani

81'

Paolo← Natan Masiero

81'

Lionn← Yuri Ferraz

90+1'

Kadu← Jhon Cley

Figueirense

Ferroviario

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Júnior Rocha

51'▲Gustavo Ramos←▼Gustavo Henrique

51'▲Natan Maciel←▼Kauê

81'▲Claudino←▼Rodrigo Bassani

81'▲Paolo←▼Natan Masiero

90+1'▲Kadu←▼Jhon Cley

Figueirense substitutes

RamosMacielClaudinoPaoloKaduCastroArturLuizinhoHenriqueMarlysonPabloDaviKuhn

Manager: Roberto Fonseca

65'▲Eder Lima←▼Fredson

65'▲Mateus Anderson←▼Wagninho

70'▲Ruy←▼Maicon Assis

81'▲Lionn←▼Yuri Ferraz

Ferroviario substitutes

LimaAndersonRuyLionnJeanBrenoGustavoSouzaCosta

Serie C: Figueirense 1–0 Ferroviario

Figueirense beat Ferroviario 1-0 in Serie C on May 28, 2022.

Goals: Gustavo Ramos (57').

The match was played at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Figueirense vs Ferroviario — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Figueirense 1–0 Ferroviario