Figueirense 0–1 Chapecoense-sc: Result & Stats

Figueirense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chapecoense-sc

Danrlei 28'

1/26/2023

League #604 · Round 4Estádio Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Figueirense31%

×Draw28%

Chapecoense-sc41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchChapecoense-sc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.24

Figueirense

1.04

Chapecoense-sc

1.24

Chapecoense-sc creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

1.30

1.18

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Figueirense

1.18

Chapecoense-sc

1.30

allows per match

Figueirense

1.18

Chapecoense-sc

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

Chapecoense-sc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

59%

Figueirense or Chapecoense-sc

72%

Draw or Chapecoense-sc

69%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

12%

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

65%

Figueirense 2+ goals

28%

Figueirense 3+ goals

9%

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

71%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

35%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

43%

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Chapecoense-sc away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.18 + Chapecoense-sc defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.30 + Figueirense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Figueirense scores more

31%

level

28%

Chapecoense-sc scores more

41%

Chapecoense-sc at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Danrlei

32'

Nicolas Morsch

40'

Ronei← Felipe Albuquerque

62'

Pablo Oliveira← Gustavo Cazonatti

62'

Kaio Mendes← Alisson Farias

67'

Jefferson← Gustavo França

71'

Mauricio

75'

Kevin

75'

Andrew

78'

Eduardo Rosado← Uesley Gaúcho

78'

Lucas Campos← Wellisson

78'

William Matheus← Raphinha

84'

Renan← Nicolas

84'

Cleylton← Bruno Nazário

84'

Mancha← Maxwell

90+6'

Mancha

Figueirense

Chapecoense-sc

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Cristóvão Borges

67'▲Jefferson←▼Gustavo França

78'▲Eduardo Rosado←▼Uesley Gaúcho

78'▲Lucas Campos←▼Wellisson

78'▲William Matheus←▼Raphinha

84'▲Renan←▼Nicolas

Figueirense substitutes

JeffersonRosadoCamposMatheusRenanNucciClaudinoDaviKuhnEliasPeixotoGonçalvesZonta

Manager: Bruno Pivetti

40'▲Ronei←▼Felipe Albuquerque

62'▲Pablo Oliveira←▼Gustavo Cazonatti

62'▲Kaio Mendes←▼Alisson Farias

84'▲Cleylton←▼Bruno Nazário

84'▲Mancha←▼Maxwell

Chapecoense-sc substitutes

RoneiOliveiraMendesCleyltonManchaPauloMuriloRibeiroRibamar