Figueirense 1–1 Chapecoense-sc: Result & Stats

Figueirense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chapecoense-sc

Rafael Moura 45+1' (pen)

Dener 71'

7/17/2016

Serie A · Round 15Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Figueirense47%

×Draw27%

Chapecoense-sc25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchChapecoense-sc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.94

Figueirense

1.39

Chapecoense-sc

0.94

Figueirense creates 48% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 128 away

1.15

creates per match

0.80

1.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Figueirense

1.15

Chapecoense-sc

0.80

allows per match

Figueirense

1.07

Chapecoense-sc

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

Chapecoense-sc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

75%

Figueirense or Chapecoense-sc

73%

Draw or Chapecoense-sc

53%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

23%

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

75%

Figueirense 2+ goals

40%

Figueirense 3+ goals

16%

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

61%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

24%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

65%

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 95 matches

Chapecoense-sc away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.15 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Chapecoense-sc attack 0.80 + Figueirense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Figueirense scores more

47%

level

27%

Chapecoense-sc scores more

25%

Figueirense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Rafael Moura

Figueirense · F

7.6

Match Events

15'

Lucas Gomes← Arthur Maia

19'

Gil

38'

Ananias

44'

Filipe Jose Machado

45+1'

Rafael MouraPenalty

50'

Gustavo Ermel← Jocinei

64'

A. Martinuccio← Gil

65'

Dodô← Bady

71'

Dener↳ Lucas Gomes

76'

Gimenez← Cléber Santana

82'

Kempes

83'

Jefferson← Ayrton

85'

Marquinhos Pedroso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FigueirenseChapecoense-sc

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots9

3Corners5

16Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

5Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

348Total Passes420

231Accurate Passes311

66%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1