Figueirense U20 0–2 Hercílio Luz U20

Figueirense U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hercílio Luz U20

4/22/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 6Centro de Treinamentos do Figueirense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Figueirense U2044%

×Draw24%

Hercílio Luz U2032%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Figueirense U20Expected goals in this matchHercílio Luz U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.41

Figueirense U20

1.68

Hercílio Luz U20

1.41

Figueirense U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

1.81

creates per match

1.55

1.27

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Figueirense U20

1.81

Hercílio Luz U20

1.55

allows per match

Figueirense U20

1.27

Hercílio Luz U20

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense U20+0.00on par

Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense U20 ↓

Hercílio Luz U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Figueirense U20 or draw

68%

Figueirense U20 or Hercílio Luz U20

76%

Draw or Hercílio Luz U20

56%

Winning margin

Figueirense U20 wins by 2+

23%

Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Figueirense U20 1+ goals

81%

Figueirense U20 2+ goals

50%

Figueirense U20 3+ goals

24%

Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals

76%

Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals

41%

Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Figueirense U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense U20 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Hercílio Luz U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense U20 attack 1.81 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 1.55 + Figueirense U20 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Figueirense U20 scores more

44%

level

24%

Hercílio Luz U20 scores more

32%

Figueirense U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Figueirense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff