FH hafnarfjordur 1–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

FH hafnarfjordur

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

K. Halldorsson 90'

H. Ragnarsson 88'

8/24/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 20Kaplakriki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FH hafnarfjordur51%

×Draw22%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FH hafnarfjordurExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.35

FH hafnarfjordur

1.93

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.35

FH hafnarfjordur creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

1.85

creates per match

1.30

1.41

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FH hafnarfjordur

1.85

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.30

allows per match

FH hafnarfjordur

1.41

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FH hafnarfjordur ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FH hafnarfjordur or draw

73%

FH hafnarfjordur or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

78%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

49%

Winning margin

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

29%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

85%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

57%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

30%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

74%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

39%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

65%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FH hafnarfjordur at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.85 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.30 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

51%

level

22%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

27%

FH hafnarfjordur at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FH hafnarfjordur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

27'

34'

40'

60'

65'

K. Finnbogason← B. Brynjolfsson

65'

E. Bwomono← A. Hilmarsson

65'

B. Baxter← B. Hlynsson

70'

B. Bjarkason← D. Fjeldsted

76'

M. Zapytowski

77'

J. Pettersen← S. Hjaltested

77'

A. Gunnarsson← V. Valor

79'

E. Ingvarsson← B. Helgason

88'

H. Ragnarsson↳ A. Gunnarsson

90+2'

T. Robertsson

90+2'

T. Robertsson

90+5'

E. Bwomono

90+4'

N. Nokkvason← H. Ragnarsson

90'

K. Halldorsson

FH

IBV

1

Zapytowsk

21

▼

2

5

23

19

22

30

▼

Valor

10

▼

Hjalteste

25

▼

Hilmarsso

24

⚽

▼

13

2

21

23

4

22

17

▼

Fjeldsted

37

▼

Helgason

10

Sverrisso

16

▼

Brynjolfs

7

⚽

Halldorss

Manager: Heimir Guðjónsson

65'▲K. Finnbogason←▼B. Brynjolfsson

70'▲B. Bjarkason←▼D. Fjeldsted

79'▲E. Ingvarsson←▼B. Helgason

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

24Arnarsson6Gunnarsson11Bjarkason18Ingvarsson27Arnarsson32Svavarsson34Steinbjornsson38Gudmundsson45Finnbogason

Manager: Þorlákur Már Arnason

65'▲E. Bwomono←▼A. Hilmarsson

65'▲B. Baxter←▼B. Hlynsson

77'▲J. Pettersen←▼S. Hjaltested

77'▲A. Gunnarsson←▼V. Valor

90+4'▲N. Nokkvason←▼H. Ragnarsson

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

31Arnarsson4Nokkvason7Pettersen11Thorvardarson14Gunnarsson17Gautason42Bwomono45Baxter

Úrvalsdeild: FH hafnarfjordur 1–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

FH hafnarfjordur and IBV Vestmannaeyjar drew 1-1 in Úrvalsdeild on August 24, 2025.

Goals: H. Ragnarsson (88'), K. Halldorsson (90').

The match was played at Kaplakriki in Hafnarfjörður.

FH hafnarfjordur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Úrvalsdeild: FH hafnarfjordur 1–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar