FF Sport Nova Cruz 0–2 Aliança AL: Result & Stats

FF Sport Nova Cruz

FT

0 – 2

Aliança AL

9/8/2024

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Manoel Moreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FF Sport Nova Cruz37%

×Draw32%

Aliança AL30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF Sport Nova CruzExpected goals in this matchAliança AL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.85

FF Sport Nova Cruz

0.98

Aliança AL

0.85

FF Sport Nova Cruz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

0.40

creates per match

0.91

0.80

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FF Sport Nova Cruz

0.40

Aliança AL

0.91

allows per match

FF Sport Nova Cruz

0.80

Aliança AL

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Sport Nova Cruz+0.00on par

Aliança AL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Sport Nova Cruz ↓

Aliança AL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

FF Sport Nova Cruz or draw

70%

FF Sport Nova Cruz or Aliança AL

68%

Draw or Aliança AL

63%

Winning margin

FF Sport Nova Cruz wins by 2+

14%

Aliança AL wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FF Sport Nova Cruz 1+ goals

62%

FF Sport Nova Cruz 2+ goals

26%

FF Sport Nova Cruz 3+ goals

8%

Aliança AL 1+ goals

57%

Aliança AL 2+ goals

21%

Aliança AL 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FF Sport Nova Cruz (draw refunded)

55%

Aliança AL (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Sport Nova Cruz at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Aliança AL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Sport Nova Cruz attack 0.40 + Aliança AL defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.98

Aliança AL attack 0.91 + FF Sport Nova Cruz defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FF Sport Nova Cruz scores more

37%

level

32%

Aliança AL scores more

30%

FF Sport Nova Cruz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FF Sport Nova Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff