FF Jaro 2–1 PK-35: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

FF Jaro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PK-35

N. Omoruyi 86'

A. Hotta 81'

E. Markkanen 71' (pen)

5/19/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 7Jakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FF Jaro49%

×Draw25%

PK-3526%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchPK-35

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.11

FF Jaro

1.60

PK-35

1.11

FF Jaro creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 35 away

2.21

creates per match

1.29

0.93

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FF Jaro

2.21

PK-35

1.29

allows per match

FF Jaro

0.93

PK-35

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

PK-35 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

74%

FF Jaro or PK-35

75%

Draw or PK-35

51%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

25%

PK-35 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

80%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

47%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

22%

PK-35 1+ goals

67%

PK-35 2+ goals

30%

PK-35 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

65%

PK-35 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

PK-35 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 2.21 + PK-35 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

PK-35 attack 1.29 + FF Jaro defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FF Jaro scores more

49%

level

25%

PK-35 scores more

26%

FF Jaro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. Sipola

20'

J. Nakanishi

34'

X. Gela← E. Karjalainen

45+1'

T. Andberg

67'

J. Myrevik← A. Björkskog

71'

E. MarkkanenPenalty

75'

A. Hotta← J. Remesaho

75'

N. Omoruyi← M. Kronholm

78'

M. Beyai← E. Markkanen

78'

81'

81'

86'

89'

89'

H. Nekado← J. Pikkuhookana

90+2'

F. Manneh

90+4'

K. Moses

FF

PK-35

25

Viljala

34

Andberg

4

▼

Karjalain

6

Okoye

88

▼

Pikkuhook

19

Uchiyama

20

Nakanishi

9

⚽

▼

Markkanen

8

▼

Adam

14

▼

11

1

6

12

4

3

5

15

▼

Kronholm

10

Eremenko

24

▼

Remesaho

66

Kähkönen

11

▼

Björkskog

Manager: N. Vidjeskog

67'▲J. Myrevik←▼A. Björkskog

75'▲A. Hotta←▼J. Remesaho

75'▲N. Omoruyi←▼M. Kronholm

FF Jaro substitutes

21Myrevik19Hotta9Omoruyi18Sandstedt22Björkskog47Huldén77Enqvist

Manager: K. Raimi

34'▲X. Gela←▼E. Karjalainen

78'▲M. Beyai←▼E. Markkanen

78'▲Joao Costa←▼Tiquinho

89'▲K. Räsänen←▼Y. Adam

89'▲H. Nekado←▼J. Pikkuhookana

PK-35 substitutes

5Gela10Beyai16Costa21Räsänen18Nekado30Abdi12Lehtonen

Match Recap: FF Jaro vs PK-35

FF Jaro beat PK-35 2-1 in Ykkösliiga on May 19, 2024.

Goals: E. Markkanen (71' pen), A. Hotta (81'), N. Omoruyi (86').

The match was played at Jakobstads Centralplan in Jacobstad.

FF Jaro vs PK-35 — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FF Jaro vs PK-35