FF Jaro 1–1 PK-35: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

FF Jaro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PK-35

G. Sotelo 50' (pen)

D. Rantanen 71' (pen)

6/20/2021

Ykkönen · Round 5Jakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FF Jaro58%

×Draw21%

PK-3521%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchPK-35

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.13

FF Jaro

2.03

PK-35

1.13

FF Jaro creates 80% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 27 away

1.99

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

FF Jaro

1.99

PK-35

1.00

allows per match

FF Jaro

1.25

PK-35

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

PK-35 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

79%

FF Jaro or PK-35

79%

Draw or PK-35

42%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

35%

PK-35 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

87%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

60%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

33%

PK-35 1+ goals

68%

PK-35 2+ goals

31%

PK-35 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

74%

PK-35 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.25 · 72 matches

PK-35 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.99 + PK-35 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.03

PK-35 attack 1.00 + FF Jaro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FF Jaro scores more

58%

level

21%

PK-35 scores more

21%

FF Jaro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Brunell

49'

P. Aaltonen

49'

E. Puro

50'

G. SoteloPenalty

53'

T. Lahdesmaki

64'

G. Ben← Bruno Rodrigues

67'

J. Myrevik← J. Aalto

71'

D. RantanenPenalty

82'

M. Mäkirinne← Y. Adam

82'

A. Auranen← E. Puro

84'

S. Haglund← M. Chrisantus

85'

Toro

90+1'

C. Katashira← J. Muzinga

FF

PK-35

1

11

3

27

6

21

▼

Puro

13

Terävä

35

⚽

Rantanen

52

▼

Muzinga

26

▼

Rodrigues

8

▼

Adam

1

Olsen

6

Brunell

2

⚽

13

50

15

90

10

▼

Aalto

11

Lähdesmäk

29

Wargh

9

▼

Chrisantu

Manager: J. Wargh

67'▲J. Myrevik←▼J. Aalto

84'▲S. Haglund←▼M. Chrisantus

FF Jaro substitutes

21Myrevik7Haglund3Uusitalo5Bjonbäck8Ramsay24Remesaho12Käldström

Manager: K. Raimi

64'▲G. Ben←▼Bruno Rodrigues

82'▲M. Mäkirinne←▼Y. Adam

82'▲A. Auranen←▼E. Puro

90+1'▲C. Katashira←▼J. Muzinga

PK-35 substitutes

14Ben10Mäkirinne24Auranen30Katashira2Kurvinen22Yacoob25Niemi

FF Jaro 1 – 1 PK-35

FF Jaro and PK-35 drew 1-1 in Ykkönen on June 20, 2021.

Goals: G. Sotelo (50' pen), D. Rantanen (71' pen).

The match was played at Jakobstads Centralplan in Jacobstad.

FF Jaro vs PK-35 — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FF Jaro 1 – 1 PK-35