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FF Jaro vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

FF Jaro
FF Jaro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lahti
Lahti
4/4/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 1Project Liv Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FF Jaro40%
×Draw26%
Lahti34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Jaro
1.41
Lahti
1.28

FF Jaro creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 101 away

creates per match

FF Jaro
1.25
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

FF Jaro
1.63
Lahti
1.56

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw
66%
FF Jaro or Lahti
74%
Draw or Lahti
60%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+
19%
Lahti wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals
76%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
41%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
17%
Lahti 1+ goals
72%
Lahti 2+ goals
37%
Lahti 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)
54%
Lahti (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.25 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lahti attack 0.93 + FF Jaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FF Jaro scores more
40%
level
26%
Lahti scores more
34%

FF Jaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: FF Jaro 0–1 Lahti

Lahti beat FF Jaro 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Project Liv Arena in Jakobstad.