FF Jaro 0–2 KPV Kokkola: Result & Stats

FF Jaro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

KPV Kokkola

2/8/2020

Suomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Tellushalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FF Jaro13%

×Draw19%

KPV Kokkola68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchKPV Kokkola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

2.21

FF Jaro

0.86

KPV Kokkola

2.21

KPV Kokkola creates 157% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

2.43

2.00

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

FF Jaro

1.44

KPV Kokkola

2.43

allows per match

FF Jaro

2.00

KPV Kokkola

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

KPV Kokkola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

32%

FF Jaro or KPV Kokkola

81%

Draw or KPV Kokkola

87%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

4%

KPV Kokkola wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

58%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

21%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

6%

KPV Kokkola 1+ goals

89%

KPV Kokkola 2+ goals

65%

KPV Kokkola 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

16%

KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.44 + KPV Kokkola defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.86

KPV Kokkola attack 2.43 + FF Jaro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FF Jaro scores more

13%

level

19%

KPV Kokkola scores more

68%

KPV Kokkola at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "KPV Kokkola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff