FF Jaro 3–1 KPV-j: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

FF Jaro

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KPV-j

J. Remesaho 90+5'

S. Kähkönen 88'

G. Sotelo 50'

O. Akpoveta 26'

9/17/2023

Ykkönen · Relegation Round - 1Jakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

FF Jaro54%

×Draw22%

KPV-j24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchKPV-j

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.21

FF Jaro

1.91

KPV-j

1.21

FF Jaro creates 58% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 84 away

1.95

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

FF Jaro

1.95

KPV-j

1.17

allows per match

FF Jaro

1.26

KPV-j

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

KPV-j →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

76%

FF Jaro or KPV-j

78%

Draw or KPV-j

46%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

31%

KPV-j wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

85%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

57%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

30%

KPV-j 1+ goals

70%

KPV-j 2+ goals

34%

KPV-j 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

69%

KPV-j (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

KPV-j away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.95 + KPV-j defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.91

KPV-j attack 1.17 + FF Jaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FF Jaro scores more

54%

level

22%

KPV-j scores more

24%

FF Jaro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. Kahkonen

20'

J. Ihalainen← S. Mahlamäki

26'

O. Akpoveta

27'

O. Holness

39'

A. Björkskog← O. Holness

46'

A. Ramsay← A. Bjonbäck

50'

G. Sotelo

62'

A. Hotta

69'

N. Kujasalo

74'

J. Paananen← J. Ihalainen

78'

84'

88'

89'

90+1'

90+5'

FF

KPV-j

33

Lazarev

5

▼

21

3

15

23

6

22

⚽

9

14

17

25

7

13

▼

Holness

23

⚽

▼

Sotelo

5

▼

15

19

10

21

24

⚽

Remesaho

66

⚽

Kähkönen

Manager: S. Ward

39'▲A. Björkskog←▼O. Holness

46'▲A. Ramsay←▼A. Bjonbäck

89'▲S. Sillah←▼G. Sotelo

FF Jaro substitutes

11Björkskog8Ramsay70Sillah1Snellman26Uwaegbulam27Carty99Marsh-Brown

Manager: A. Sipilä

20'▲J. Ihalainen←▼S. Mahlamäki

74'▲J. Paananen←▼J. Ihalainen

KPV-j substitutes

2Ihalainen11Paananen1Seppä12Curinga20Ring29Wegye90Byskata

FF Jaro 3 – 1 KPV-j

FF Jaro beat KPV-j 3-1 in Ykkönen on September 17, 2023.

Goals: O. Akpoveta (26'), G. Sotelo (50'), S. Kähkönen (88'), J. Remesaho (90+5').

The match was played at Jakobstads Centralplan in Jacobstad.

FF Jaro vs KPV-j — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FF Jaro 3 – 1 KPV-j