FF Jaro 3–2 KäPa: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

FF Jaro

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

KäPa

A. Björkskog 78'

J. Brunell 48'

G. Sotelo 31'

M. Tolonen 83'

M. Kauppila 66'

9/1/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 22Jakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FF Jaro62%

×Draw19%

KäPa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchKäPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.20

FF Jaro

2.34

KäPa

1.20

FF Jaro creates 95% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

2.21

creates per match

1.47

0.93

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

FF Jaro

2.21

KäPa

1.47

allows per match

FF Jaro

0.93

KäPa

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

KäPa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

82%

FF Jaro or KäPa

81%

Draw or KäPa

38%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

40%

KäPa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

90%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

67%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

41%

KäPa 1+ goals

70%

KäPa 2+ goals

34%

KäPa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

77%

KäPa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 2.21 + KäPa defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.34

KäPa attack 1.47 + FF Jaro defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FF Jaro scores more

62%

level

19%

KäPa scores more

18%

FF Jaro at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

G. Sotelo

48'

J. Brunell

56'

E. Crona← J. Myrevik

56'

R. Björkskog← S. Kähkönen

61'

M. Turunen← Y. Lika

66'

M. Kauppila

67'

N. Nurmi

70'

B. Heikkinen← A. Jouhi

70'

C. Lönnqvist← E. Kallio

76'

78'

81'

82'

82'

J. Huovinen← M. Pulkkinen

83'

A. Hotta← G. Sotelo

83'

M. Tolonen

85'

S. Sipola

89'

M. Kronholm← A. Vidjeskog

FF

KäPa

1

Piispa

25

Pasi

13

▼

Pulkkinen

4

Hietalaht

6

▼

Nurmi

8

Kuningas

11

Tammivuor

31

▼

Jouhi

2

⚽

Kauppila

14

▼

Lika

27

▼

Kallio

1

Lazarev

6

⚽

Brunell

2

⚽

▼

4

8

3

5

10

16

▼

Vidjeskog

21

▼

Myrevik

66

▼

Kähkönen

Manager: N. Vidjeskog

56'▲E. Crona←▼J. Myrevik

56'▲R. Björkskog←▼S. Kähkönen

83'▲A. Hotta←▼G. Sotelo

89'▲M. Kronholm←▼A. Vidjeskog

FF Jaro substitutes

9Crona22Björkskog19Hotta15Kronholm11Björkskog17Nyman77Zvar

Manager: S. Okkonen

61'▲M. Turunen←▼Y. Lika

70'▲B. Heikkinen←▼A. Jouhi

70'▲C. Lönnqvist←▼E. Kallio

82'▲M. Tolonen←▼N. Nurmi

82'▲J. Huovinen←▼M. Pulkkinen

KäPa substitutes

9Turunen7Heikkinen17Lönnqvist10Tolonen23Huovinen18Valakari30Hautamo

Ykkösliiga: FF Jaro 3–2 KäPa

FF Jaro beat KäPa 3-2 in Ykkösliiga on September 1, 2024.

Goals: G. Sotelo (31'), J. Brunell (48'), M. Kauppila (66'), A. Björkskog (78'), M. Tolonen (83').

The match was played at Jakobstads Centralplan in Jacobstad.

FF Jaro vs KäPa — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkösliiga: FF Jaro 3–2 KäPa