FF Baia Mare W 1–4 Vasas Femina W: Result & Stats

FF Baia Mare W

FT

1 – 4

Vasas Femina W

9/27/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 3Stadionul Viorel Mateianu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FF Baia Mare W57%

×Draw19%

Vasas Femina W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF Baia Mare WExpected goals in this matchVasas Femina W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.66

FF Baia Mare W

2.56

Vasas Femina W

1.66

FF Baia Mare W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 58 away

1.87

creates per match

1.34

1.97

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

FF Baia Mare W

1.87

Vasas Femina W

1.34

allows per match

FF Baia Mare W

1.97

Vasas Femina W

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Baia Mare W ↓

Vasas Femina W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

FF Baia Mare W or draw

75%

FF Baia Mare W or Vasas Femina W

81%

Draw or Vasas Femina W

43%

Winning margin

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+

36%

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals

92%

FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals

72%

FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals

46%

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals

81%

Vasas Femina W 2+ goals

49%

Vasas Femina W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)

70%

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Baia Mare W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.87 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.56

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + FF Baia Mare W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FF Baia Mare W scores more

57%

level

19%

Vasas Femina W scores more

25%

FF Baia Mare W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FF Baia Mare W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff