FF Baia Mare W 1–4 SSU Poli Timişoara W

FF Baia Mare W

FT

1 – 4

SSU Poli Timişoara W

9/26/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 4Comunal Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FF Baia Mare W32%

×Draw21%

SSU Poli Timişoara W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF Baia Mare WExpected goals in this matchSSU Poli Timişoara W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.18

FF Baia Mare W

1.77

SSU Poli Timişoara W

2.18

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

1.87

creates per match

2.39

1.97

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FF Baia Mare W

1.87

SSU Poli Timişoara W

2.39

allows per match

FF Baia Mare W

1.97

SSU Poli Timişoara W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Baia Mare W ↓

SSU Poli Timişoara W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

FF Baia Mare W or draw

53%

FF Baia Mare W or SSU Poli Timişoara W

79%

Draw or SSU Poli Timişoara W

68%

Winning margin

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+

16%

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals

83%

FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals

53%

FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals

26%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals

89%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals

64%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)

40%

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Baia Mare W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.87 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 2.39 + FF Baia Mare W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FF Baia Mare W scores more

32%

level

21%

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more

47%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff