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FF Baia Mare W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

FF Baia Mare W
FF Baia Mare W
FT
3 – 2
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
11/14/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 9Stadionul Viorel Mateianu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FF Baia Mare W66%
×Draw16%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Baia Mare W
3.17
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.66

FF Baia Mare W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

FF Baia Mare W
1.87
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.34

allows per match

FF Baia Mare W
1.97
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4.46

finishing

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par
Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Baia Mare W ↓

Ladies Târgu Mureş W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

FF Baia Mare W or draw
82%
FF Baia Mare W or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
84%
Draw or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
34%

Winning margin

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+
47%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals
96%
FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals
82%
FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals
60%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
81%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
49%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)
79%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Baia Mare W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W away — creates 1.34, concedes 4.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.87 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 4.46 → ÷2 → 3.17

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.34 + FF Baia Mare W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FF Baia Mare W scores more
66%
level
16%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
18%

FF Baia Mare W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FF Baia Mare W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: FF Baia Mare W 3–2 Ladies Târgu Mureş W

FF Baia Mare W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Viorel Mateianu in Baia Mare.