Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FF Baia Mare W vs Banat Girls W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

FF Baia Mare W
FF Baia Mare W
FT
1 – 0
Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
4/25/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 4Stadionul Viorel Mateianu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FF Baia Mare W53%
×Draw20%
Banat Girls W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Baia Mare W
2.32
Banat Girls W
1.64

FF Baia Mare W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 43 away

creates per match

FF Baia Mare W
1.87
Banat Girls W
1.30

allows per match

FF Baia Mare W
1.97
Banat Girls W
2.77

finishing

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par
Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Baia Mare W ↓

Banat Girls W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FF Baia Mare W or draw
73%
FF Baia Mare W or Banat Girls W
80%
Draw or Banat Girls W
47%

Winning margin

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+
32%
Banat Girls W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals
90%
FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals
67%
FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals
40%
Banat Girls W 1+ goals
81%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
49%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)
66%
Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Baia Mare W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.87 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.32

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + FF Baia Mare W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FF Baia Mare W scores more
53%
level
20%
Banat Girls W scores more
27%

FF Baia Mare W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FF Baia Mare W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: FF Baia Mare W 1–0 Banat Girls W

FF Baia Mare W beat Banat Girls W 1-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Viorel Mateianu in Baia Mare.