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Banat Girls W vs FF Baia Mare W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
FT
6 – 2
FF Baia Mare W
FF Baia Mare W
5/26/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Voinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Banat Girls W60%
×Draw17%
FF Baia Mare W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banat Girls W
2.91
FF Baia Mare W
1.77

Banat Girls W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Banat Girls W
2.24
FF Baia Mare W
1.26

allows per match

Banat Girls W
2.29
FF Baia Mare W
3.58

finishing

Banat Girls W+0.00on par
FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banat Girls W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Banat Girls W or draw
78%
Banat Girls W or FF Baia Mare W
83%
Draw or FF Baia Mare W
40%

Winning margin

Banat Girls W wins by 2+
41%
FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Banat Girls W 1+ goals
94%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
78%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
54%
FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals
83%
FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals
53%
FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
73%
FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banat Girls W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banat Girls W attack 2.24 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.91

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + Banat Girls W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Banat Girls W scores more
60%
level
17%
FF Baia Mare W scores more
22%

Banat Girls W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Banat Girls W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Banat Girls W 6–2 FF Baia Mare W

Banat Girls W beat FF Baia Mare W 6-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Voinţa in Lupac.