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FF Baia Mare W vs Arad W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

FF Baia Mare W
FF Baia Mare W
FT
2 – 3
Arad W
Arad W
11/15/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 10Stadionul Viorel Mateianu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FF Baia Mare W38%
×Draw21%
Arad W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Baia Mare W
1.97
Arad W
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

FF Baia Mare W
1.87
Arad W
2.19

allows per match

FF Baia Mare W
1.97
Arad W
2.06

finishing

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par
Arad W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Baia Mare W ↓

Arad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

FF Baia Mare W or draw
58%
FF Baia Mare W or Arad W
79%
Draw or Arad W
62%

Winning margin

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+
20%
Arad W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals
86%
FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals
58%
FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals
31%
Arad W 1+ goals
87%
Arad W 2+ goals
61%
Arad W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)
47%
Arad W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Baia Mare W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Arad W away — creates 2.19, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.87 + Arad W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.97

Arad W attack 2.19 + FF Baia Mare W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FF Baia Mare W scores more
38%
level
21%
Arad W scores more
42%

Arad W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: FF Baia Mare W 2–3 Arad W

Arad W beat FF Baia Mare W 3-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Viorel Mateianu in Baia Mare.