Arad W 6–0 FF Baia Mare W: Result & Stats

Arad W

FT

6 – 0

FF Baia Mare W

5/22/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Sânicolau Mic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arad W68%

×Draw16%

FF Baia Mare W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arad WExpected goals in this matchFF Baia Mare W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

1.58

Arad W

3.16

FF Baia Mare W

1.58

Arad W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

2.74

creates per match

1.26

1.90

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Arad W

2.74

FF Baia Mare W

1.26

allows per match

Arad W

1.90

FF Baia Mare W

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arad W+0.00on par

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arad W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Arad W or draw

83%

Arad W or FF Baia Mare W

84%

Draw or FF Baia Mare W

32%

Winning margin

Arad W wins by 2+

48%

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arad W 1+ goals

96%

Arad W 2+ goals

82%

Arad W 3+ goals

59%

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals

79%

FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals

47%

FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Arad W (draw refunded)

80%

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arad W at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arad W attack 2.74 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.16

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + Arad W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Arad W scores more

68%

level

16%

FF Baia Mare W scores more

17%

Arad W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff