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Feyenoord vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

Feyenoord
Feyenoord
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Heracles
Heracles
1/25/2026EredivisieEredivisie · Round 20De Kuip

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Feyenoord69%
×Draw18%
Heracles13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feyenoord
2.24
Heracles
0.85

Feyenoord creates 164% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 117 away

creates per match

Feyenoord
2.35
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

Feyenoord
0.91
Heracles
2.12

finishing

Feyenoord+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Feyenoord or draw
87%
Feyenoord or Heracles
82%
Draw or Heracles
31%

Winning margin

Feyenoord wins by 2+
45%
Heracles wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Feyenoord 1+ goals
89%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
65%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
38%
Heracles 1+ goals
57%
Heracles 2+ goals
21%
Heracles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord (draw refunded)
84%
Heracles (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.91 · 134 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord attack 2.35 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.24

Heracles attack 0.79 + Feyenoord defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Feyenoord scores more
69%
level
18%
Heracles scores more
13%

Feyenoord at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feyenoord vs Heracles

Feyenoord beat Heracles 4-2 in Eredivisie on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at De Kuip in Rotterdam.