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Feyenoord vs FSV Mainz 05 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Feyenoord
Feyenoord
FT
1 – 2
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Feyenoord8%
×Draw11%
FSV Mainz 0581%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feyenoord
1.13
FSV Mainz 05
3.63

FSV Mainz 05 creates 221% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Feyenoord
2.00
FSV Mainz 05
6.25

allows per match

Feyenoord
1.00
FSV Mainz 05
0.25

finishing

Feyenoord+0.00on par
FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Feyenoord or draw
19%
Feyenoord or FSV Mainz 05
89%
Draw or FSV Mainz 05
92%

Winning margin

Feyenoord wins by 2+
3%
FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Feyenoord 1+ goals
68%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
31%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
11%
FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals
97%
FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
87%
FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord (draw refunded)
9%
FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 6.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord attack 2.00 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

FSV Mainz 05 attack 6.25 + Feyenoord defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 3.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Feyenoord scores more
8%
level
11%
FSV Mainz 05 scores more
81%

FSV Mainz 05 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feyenoord vs FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 beat Feyenoord 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 in San Pedro de Alcántara.