Feyenoord 2–1 FC Volendam: Result & Stats

Feyenoord

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Volendam

3/12/2023

Eredivisie · Round 25Stadion Feijenoord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Feyenoord70%

×Draw18%

FC Volendam13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeyenoordExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.87

Feyenoord

2.32

FC Volendam

0.87

Feyenoord creates 167% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 52 away

2.35

creates per match

0.83

0.91

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Feyenoord

2.35

FC Volendam

0.83

allows per match

Feyenoord

0.91

FC Volendam

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feyenoord+0.00on par

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Feyenoord or draw

87%

Feyenoord or FC Volendam

82%

Draw or FC Volendam

30%

Winning margin

Feyenoord wins by 2+

46%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Feyenoord 1+ goals

90%

Feyenoord 2+ goals

67%

Feyenoord 3+ goals

40%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

58%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

22%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord (draw refunded)

85%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.91 · 134 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord attack 2.35 + FC Volendam defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.32

FC Volendam attack 0.83 + Feyenoord defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Feyenoord scores more

70%

level

18%

FC Volendam scores more

13%

Feyenoord at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff