Feyenoord U21 1–0 Sittard U21: Result & Stats

Feyenoord U21

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sittard U21

3/10/2026

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Feyenoord U2172%

×Draw16%

Sittard U2112%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Feyenoord U21Expected goals in this matchSittard U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.93

Feyenoord U21

2.55

Sittard U21

0.93

Feyenoord U21 creates 174% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 7 away

2.54

creates per match

0.57

1.28

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Feyenoord U21

2.54

Sittard U21

0.57

allows per match

Feyenoord U21

1.28

Sittard U21

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Sittard U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord U21 ↓

Sittard U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Feyenoord U21 or draw

88%

Feyenoord U21 or Sittard U21

84%

Draw or Sittard U21

28%

Winning margin

Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+

50%

Sittard U21 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Feyenoord U21 1+ goals

92%

Feyenoord U21 2+ goals

72%

Feyenoord U21 3+ goals

46%

Sittard U21 1+ goals

61%

Sittard U21 2+ goals

24%

Sittard U21 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)

86%

Sittard U21 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord U21 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

Sittard U21 away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord U21 attack 2.54 + Sittard U21 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.55

Sittard U21 attack 0.57 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Feyenoord U21 scores more

72%

level

16%

Sittard U21 scores more

12%

Feyenoord U21 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff