Feyenoord U21 1–3 Groningen U21: Result & Stats

Feyenoord U21

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Groningen U21

2/7/2026

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Feyenoord U2147%

×Draw21%

Groningen U2132%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Feyenoord U21Expected goals in this matchGroningen U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.71

Feyenoord U21

2.08

Groningen U21

1.71

Feyenoord U21 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

2.54

creates per match

2.14

1.28

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Feyenoord U21

2.54

Groningen U21

2.14

allows per match

Feyenoord U21

1.28

Groningen U21

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Groningen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord U21 ↓

Groningen U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Feyenoord U21 or draw

68%

Feyenoord U21 or Groningen U21

79%

Draw or Groningen U21

53%

Winning margin

Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+

27%

Groningen U21 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Feyenoord U21 1+ goals

87%

Feyenoord U21 2+ goals

61%

Feyenoord U21 3+ goals

34%

Groningen U21 1+ goals

82%

Groningen U21 2+ goals

51%

Groningen U21 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)

59%

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord U21 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

Groningen U21 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord U21 attack 2.54 + Groningen U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.08

Groningen U21 attack 2.14 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Feyenoord U21 scores more

47%

level

21%

Groningen U21 scores more

32%

Feyenoord U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff