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Feyenoord U21 vs ADO Den Haag II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Feyenoord U21
Feyenoord U21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
1/25/2025U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 1Sportcomplex Varkenoord 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Feyenoord U2160%
×Draw20%
ADO Den Haag II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feyenoord U21
2.33
ADO Den Haag II
1.32

Feyenoord U21 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 55 away

creates per match

Feyenoord U21
2.54
ADO Den Haag II
1.36

allows per match

Feyenoord U21
1.28
ADO Den Haag II
2.11

finishing

Feyenoord U21+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Feyenoord U21 or draw
79%
Feyenoord U21 or ADO Den Haag II
80%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
40%

Winning margin

Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+
38%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Feyenoord U21 1+ goals
90%
Feyenoord U21 2+ goals
67%
Feyenoord U21 3+ goals
41%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
73%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
38%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)
74%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord U21 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord U21 attack 2.54 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.33

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Feyenoord U21 scores more
60%
level
20%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
21%

Feyenoord U21 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Feyenoord U21 2–1 ADO Den Haag II

Feyenoord U21 beat ADO Den Haag II 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Varkenoord 1 in Rotterdam.