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Feutcheu vs Union Abong-Mbang — Elite Two 2020

Feutcheu
Feutcheu
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
Unknown 88', 73', 35'
Unknown 15'
3/29/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Feutcheu46%
×Draw26%
Union Abong-Mbang28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feutcheu
1.49
Union Abong-Mbang
1.10

Feutcheu creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Feutcheu
1.63
Union Abong-Mbang
0.95

allows per match

Feutcheu
1.25
Union Abong-Mbang
1.35

finishing

Feutcheu+0.00on par
Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feutcheu ↓

Union Abong-Mbang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Feutcheu or draw
72%
Feutcheu or Union Abong-Mbang
74%
Draw or Union Abong-Mbang
54%

Winning margin

Feutcheu wins by 2+
23%
Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Feutcheu 1+ goals
77%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
44%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
19%
Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
67%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
30%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Feutcheu (draw refunded)
62%
Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feutcheu at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Union Abong-Mbang away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feutcheu attack 1.63 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Union Abong-Mbang attack 0.95 + Feutcheu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Feutcheu scores more
46%
level
26%
Union Abong-Mbang scores more
28%

Feutcheu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Feutcheu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
35'
73'
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feutcheu vs Union Abong-Mbang

Feutcheu beat Union Abong-Mbang 3-1 in Elite Two on March 29, 2025.

Goals: ? (15', 35', 73', 88').