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Feutcheu vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

Feutcheu
Feutcheu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Panthère
Panthère
Unknown 90'
6/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 22Stade Annexe 1 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Feutcheu39%
×Draw31%
Panthère30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feutcheu
1.07
Panthère
0.91

Feutcheu creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 64 away

creates per match

Feutcheu
1.09
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

Feutcheu
0.98
Panthère
1.05

finishing

Feutcheu+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feutcheu ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Feutcheu or draw
70%
Feutcheu or Panthère
69%
Draw or Panthère
61%

Winning margin

Feutcheu wins by 2+
16%
Panthère wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Feutcheu 1+ goals
66%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
29%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
9%
Panthère 1+ goals
60%
Panthère 2+ goals
23%
Panthère 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Feutcheu (draw refunded)
56%
Panthère (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feutcheu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feutcheu attack 1.09 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07

Panthère attack 0.84 + Feutcheu defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Feutcheu scores more
39%
level
31%
Panthère scores more
30%

Feutcheu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Feutcheu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Feutcheu 1–0 Panthère

Feutcheu beat Panthère 1-0 in Elite One on June 2, 2022.

Goals: ? (90').

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 de Japoma in Douala.