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Feutcheu vs Canon — Elite One 2019

Feutcheu
Feutcheu
FT
1 – 1
Canon
Canon
4/30/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Feutcheu34%
×Draw30%
Canon36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feutcheu
1.04
Canon
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

creates per match

Feutcheu
1.09
Canon
1.18

allows per match

Feutcheu
0.96
Canon
0.98

finishing

Feutcheu+0.00on par
Canon+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feutcheu ↓

Canon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Feutcheu or draw
64%
Feutcheu or Canon
70%
Draw or Canon
66%

Winning margin

Feutcheu wins by 2+
13%
Canon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Feutcheu 1+ goals
65%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
28%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
9%
Canon 1+ goals
66%
Canon 2+ goals
29%
Canon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Feutcheu (draw refunded)
49%
Canon (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feutcheu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Canon away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feutcheu attack 1.09 + Canon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Canon attack 1.18 + Feutcheu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Feutcheu scores more
34%
level
30%
Canon scores more
36%

Canon at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feutcheu vs Canon

Feutcheu and Canon drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.