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Feutcheu vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020

Feutcheu
Feutcheu
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
O. Ngong 90', 74'
B. Awahmukala 18'
A. Ledwine 14'
12/29/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Feutcheu47%
×Draw25%
Bafmeng United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feutcheu
1.58
Bafmeng United
1.14

Feutcheu creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

creates per match

Feutcheu
1.63
Bafmeng United
1.03

allows per match

Feutcheu
1.25
Bafmeng United
1.53

finishing

Feutcheu+0.00on par
Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feutcheu ↓

Bafmeng United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Feutcheu or draw
73%
Feutcheu or Bafmeng United
75%
Draw or Bafmeng United
53%

Winning margin

Feutcheu wins by 2+
24%
Bafmeng United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Feutcheu 1+ goals
79%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
47%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
21%
Bafmeng United 1+ goals
68%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
32%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Feutcheu (draw refunded)
63%
Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feutcheu at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feutcheu attack 1.63 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Feutcheu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Feutcheu scores more
47%
level
25%
Bafmeng United scores more
27%

Feutcheu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Feutcheu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Ledwine
18'
B. Awahmukala
74'
O. Ngong
90'
O. Ngong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feutcheu vs Bafmeng United

Bafmeng United beat Feutcheu 4-0 in Elite Two on December 29, 2024.

Goals: A. Ledwine (14'), B. Awahmukala (18'), O. Ngong (74', 90').