Feulen 4–3 Yellow Boys Weiler: Result & Stats | Cup

Feulen

AET

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Yellow Boys Weiler

10/2/2022

Cup · 2nd RoundTerrain In Bertzent

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Feulen16%

×Draw17%

Yellow Boys Weiler67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeulenExpected goals in this matchYellow Boys Weiler

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

2.60

Feulen

1.20

Yellow Boys Weiler

2.60

Yellow Boys Weiler creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.60

creates per match

3.40

1.80

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Feulen

0.60

Yellow Boys Weiler

3.40

allows per match

Feulen

1.80

Yellow Boys Weiler

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feulen+0.00on par

Yellow Boys Weiler+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feulen ↓

Yellow Boys Weiler →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Feulen or draw

33%

Feulen or Yellow Boys Weiler

83%

Draw or Yellow Boys Weiler

84%

Winning margin

Feulen wins by 2+

Yellow Boys Weiler wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Feulen 1+ goals

70%

Feulen 2+ goals

34%

Feulen 3+ goals

12%

Yellow Boys Weiler 1+ goals

92%

Yellow Boys Weiler 2+ goals

73%

Yellow Boys Weiler 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Feulen (draw refunded)

19%

Yellow Boys Weiler (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Feulen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Yellow Boys Weiler away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Feulen attack 0.60 + Yellow Boys Weiler defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Yellow Boys Weiler attack 3.40 + Feulen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Feulen scores more

16%

level

17%

Yellow Boys Weiler scores more

67%

Yellow Boys Weiler at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Yellow Boys Weiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff