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Feulen vs Victoria Rosport — Cup 2020

Feulen
Feulen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosportadvanced
4/22/2026CupCup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Feulen17%
×Draw20%
Victoria Rosport62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feulen
0.99
Victoria Rosport
2.09

Victoria Rosport creates 111% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Feulen
0.60
Victoria Rosport
2.38

allows per match

Feulen
1.80
Victoria Rosport
1.38

finishing

Feulen+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feulen ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Feulen or draw
38%
Feulen or Victoria Rosport
80%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
83%

Winning margin

Feulen wins by 2+
6%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Feulen 1+ goals
63%
Feulen 2+ goals
26%
Feulen 3+ goals
8%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
88%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
62%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Feulen (draw refunded)
21%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feulen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feulen attack 0.60 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Victoria Rosport attack 2.38 + Feulen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Feulen scores more
17%
level
20%
Victoria Rosport scores more
62%

Victoria Rosport at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Feulen 1–2 Victoria Rosport

Victoria Rosport beat Feulen 2-1 in Cup on April 22, 2026.