Feulen 1–1 Bettembourg: Result & Stats | Cup

Feulen

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bettembourg

11/9/2025

Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Feulen14%

×Draw18%

Bettembourg68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeulenExpected goals in this matchBettembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

2.40

Feulen

0.99

Bettembourg

2.40

Bettembourg creates 142% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

0.60

creates per match

3.00

1.80

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Feulen

0.60

Bettembourg

3.00

allows per match

Feulen

1.80

Bettembourg

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feulen+0.00on par

Bettembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feulen ↓

Bettembourg →

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Feulen or draw

32%

Feulen or Bettembourg

82%

Draw or Bettembourg

86%

Winning margin

Feulen wins by 2+

Bettembourg wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Feulen 1+ goals

63%

Feulen 2+ goals

26%

Feulen 3+ goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals

91%

Bettembourg 2+ goals

69%

Bettembourg 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Feulen (draw refunded)

17%

Bettembourg (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Feulen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Bettembourg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Feulen attack 0.60 + Bettembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Bettembourg attack 3.00 + Feulen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Feulen scores more

14%

level

18%

Bettembourg scores more

68%

Bettembourg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bettembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff