Fethiyespor 2–0 Söke 1970: Result & Stats

Fethiyespor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Söke 1970

9/3/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundFethiye İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fethiyespor80%

×Draw14%

Söke 19706%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FethiyesporExpected goals in this matchSöke 1970

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.56

Fethiyespor

2.54

Söke 1970

0.56

Fethiyespor creates 354% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

0.00

1.13

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Fethiyespor

1.75

Söke 1970

0.00

allows per match

Fethiyespor

1.13

Söke 1970

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Söke 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fethiyespor ↓

Söke 1970 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fethiyespor or draw

94%

Fethiyespor or Söke 1970

86%

Draw or Söke 1970

20%

Winning margin

Fethiyespor wins by 2+

58%

Söke 1970 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Fethiyespor 1+ goals

92%

Fethiyespor 2+ goals

72%

Fethiyespor 3+ goals

46%

Söke 1970 1+ goals

43%

Söke 1970 2+ goals

11%

Söke 1970 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Fethiyespor (draw refunded)

93%

Söke 1970 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fethiyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Söke 1970 away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fethiyespor attack 1.75 + Söke 1970 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Söke 1970 attack 0.00 + Fethiyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Fethiyespor scores more

80%

level

14%

Söke 1970 scores more

6%

Fethiyespor at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Fethiyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff