Fethiyespor 2–0 Sancaktepe Belediyespor

Fethiyespor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sancaktepe Belediyespor

9/26/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundFethiye İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fethiyespor44%

×Draw27%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FethiyesporExpected goals in this matchSancaktepe Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.06

Fethiyespor

1.38

Sancaktepe Belediyespor

1.06

Fethiyespor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fethiyespor

1.75

Sancaktepe Belediyespor

1.00

allows per match

Fethiyespor

1.13

Sancaktepe Belediyespor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Sancaktepe Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fethiyespor ↓

Sancaktepe Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fethiyespor or draw

71%

Fethiyespor or Sancaktepe Belediyespor

73%

Draw or Sancaktepe Belediyespor

56%

Winning margin

Fethiyespor wins by 2+

21%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fethiyespor 1+ goals

75%

Fethiyespor 2+ goals

40%

Fethiyespor 3+ goals

16%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor 1+ goals

65%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor 2+ goals

29%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fethiyespor (draw refunded)

60%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fethiyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Sancaktepe Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fethiyespor attack 1.75 + Sancaktepe Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sancaktepe Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Fethiyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fethiyespor scores more

44%

level

27%

Sancaktepe Belediyespor scores more

29%

Fethiyespor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fethiyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff