Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fethiyespor vs Nazilli Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fethiyespor
Fethiyespor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nazilli Spor
Nazilli Spor
10/21/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundFethiye İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fethiyespor63%
×Draw20%
Nazilli Spor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fethiyespor
2.19
Nazilli Spor
1.06

Fethiyespor creates 107% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fethiyespor
1.89
Nazilli Spor
1.00

allows per match

Fethiyespor
1.11
Nazilli Spor
2.50

finishing

Fethiyespor+0.00on par
Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fethiyespor ↓

Nazilli Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fethiyespor or draw
83%
Fethiyespor or Nazilli Spor
80%
Draw or Nazilli Spor
37%

Winning margin

Fethiyespor wins by 2+
40%
Nazilli Spor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fethiyespor 1+ goals
89%
Fethiyespor 2+ goals
64%
Fethiyespor 3+ goals
37%
Nazilli Spor 1+ goals
65%
Nazilli Spor 2+ goals
29%
Nazilli Spor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fethiyespor (draw refunded)
78%
Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fethiyespor at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Nazilli Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fethiyespor attack 1.89 + Nazilli Spor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

Nazilli Spor attack 1.00 + Fethiyespor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fethiyespor scores more
63%
level
20%
Nazilli Spor scores more
17%

Fethiyespor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fethiyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fethiyespor vs Nazilli Spor

Fethiyespor beat Nazilli Spor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Fethiye İlçe Stadyumu in Fethiye.