Fethiyespor 4–1 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Fethiyespor

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bandırmaspor

S. Asatekin 84', 3'

C. Kazan 69'

U. Ayhan 26'

W. Samake 18'

12/4/2025

Türkiye Kupası · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fethiyespor55%

×Draw20%

Bandırmaspor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FethiyesporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.48

Fethiyespor

2.29

Bandırmaspor

1.48

Fethiyespor creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.83

1.13

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Fethiyespor

1.75

Bandırmaspor

1.83

allows per match

Fethiyespor

1.13

Bandırmaspor

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fethiyespor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Fethiyespor or draw

75%

Fethiyespor or Bandırmaspor

80%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

45%

Winning margin

Fethiyespor wins by 2+

34%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fethiyespor 1+ goals

90%

Fethiyespor 2+ goals

66%

Fethiyespor 3+ goals

40%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

77%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

43%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fethiyespor (draw refunded)

69%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fethiyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fethiyespor attack 1.75 + Bandırmaspor defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.29

Bandırmaspor attack 1.83 + Fethiyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fethiyespor scores more

55%

level

20%

Bandırmaspor scores more

25%

Fethiyespor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fethiyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

S. Asatekin↳ O. Atasayar

17'

Berkay Değirmencioğlu

18'

W. Samake↳ E. Cinemre

26'

45+1'

46'

57'

69'

78'

81'

81'

84'

E. Ber← A. Atci

84'

G. Silti← E. Cinemre

84'

S. Asatekin↳ K. Pala

85'

Y. Caglar← B. Degirmencioglu

87'

B. Ceken← O. Atasayar

87'

S. Kemence← S. Asatekin

90+3'

Berat Satır

Fethiyespor4-2-3-1

Bandırmaspor4-2-3-1

94

⚽

Samake

69

▼

68

11

88

8

A

▼

Cinemre

80

Ergun

18

Turkmen

19

▼

23

35

25

5

23

⚽

Kazan

16

A

▼

Atasayar

34

Yondem

29

▼

Degirmenc

19

⚽

▼

Ayhan

14

▼

Yilmaz

70

⚽2

▼

Asatekin

4

Gonulacar

52

Erdem

Manager: Sait Karafirtinalar

81'▲B. Satir←▼U. Ayhan

81'▲K. Pala←▼A. Yilmaz

85'▲Y. Caglar←▼B. Degirmencioglu

87'▲B. Ceken←▼O. Atasayar

87'▲S. Kemence←▼S. Asatekin

Fethiyespor substitutes

28Caglar1Akbulut18Gulay53Satir78Akkoyun48Pala7CekenKemence

Manager: Mustafa Gursel

46'▲E. Acar←▼S. Bozkurt

84'▲E. Ber←▼A. Atci

84'▲G. Silti←▼E. Cinemre

Bandırmaspor substitutes

31Karagul67Ber30Acar82Silti

Türkiye Kupası: Fethiyespor 4–1 Bandırmaspor

Fethiyespor beat Bandırmaspor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Asatekin (3', 84'), W. Samake (18'), U. Ayhan (26'), C. Kazan (69').

Fethiyespor vs Bandırmaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Türkiye Kupası: Fethiyespor 4–1 Bandırmaspor