Ferroviario U20 vs Fortaleza U20

Ferroviario U20

Preview

18:00

Fortaleza U20

7/25/2026

Cearense U20 · Quarter-finals

Big match

61%

Fortaleza U20

model favours

18%21%61%

Fortaleza U20 score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–2

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ferroviario U2018%

×Draw21%

Fortaleza U2061%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviario U20Expected goals in this matchFortaleza U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

2.02

Ferroviario U20

0.98

Fortaleza U20

2.02

Fortaleza U20 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.56

creates per match

2.80

1.25

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Ferroviario U20

1.56

Fortaleza U20

2.80

allows per match

Ferroviario U20

1.25

Fortaleza U20

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviario U20+0.00on par

Fortaleza U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviario U20 ↓

Fortaleza U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ferroviario U20 or draw

39%

Ferroviario U20 or Fortaleza U20

79%

Draw or Fortaleza U20

82%

Winning margin

Ferroviario U20 wins by 2+

6%

Fortaleza U20 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Ferroviario U20 1+ goals

62%

Ferroviario U20 2+ goals

26%

Ferroviario U20 3+ goals

8%

Fortaleza U20 1+ goals

87%

Fortaleza U20 2+ goals

60%

Fortaleza U20 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Ferroviario U20 (draw refunded)

22%

Fortaleza U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviario U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Fortaleza U20 away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviario U20 attack 1.56 + Fortaleza U20 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Fortaleza U20 attack 2.80 + Ferroviario U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ferroviario U20 scores more

18%

level

21%

Fortaleza U20 scores more

61%

Fortaleza U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fortaleza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Fortaleza U20 are unbeaten in 6 straight
60% of Fortaleza U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
Fortaleza U20 have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
Top-of-the-table clash — Ferroviario U20 2 vs Fortaleza U20 4
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WWWDL

U20

DWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff