Ferroviário do Huambo 1–0 Recreativo do Libolo

Ferroviário do Huambo

FT

1 – 0

Recreativo do Libolo

2/24/2020

Girabola · Round 21Estádio dos Kuricutelas (Huambo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo27%

×Draw30%

Recreativo do Libolo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviário do HuamboExpected goals in this matchRecreativo do Libolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.19

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.86

Recreativo do Libolo

1.19

Recreativo do Libolo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 99 away

0.38

creates per match

0.72

1.65

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.38

Recreativo do Libolo

0.72

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

1.65

Recreativo do Libolo

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw

56%

Ferroviário do Huambo or Recreativo do Libolo

70%

Draw or Recreativo do Libolo

73%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+

9%

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals

58%

Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals

21%

Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals

6%

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

70%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

33%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)

38%

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.86

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more

27%

level

30%

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

44%

Recreativo do Libolo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff