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Ferroviário do Huambo vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
FT
0 – 3
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
2/28/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio dos Kuricutelas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo27%
×Draw30%
Académica do Lobito43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.85
Académica do Lobito
1.17

Académica do Lobito creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 100 away

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.38
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
1.65
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw
57%
Ferroviário do Huambo or Académica do Lobito
70%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
73%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
9%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
57%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
21%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
5%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
69%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
33%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
38%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.85

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
27%
level
30%
Académica do Lobito scores more
43%

Académica do Lobito at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Ferroviário do Huambo 0–3 Académica do Lobito

Académica do Lobito beat Ferroviário do Huambo 3-0 in Girabola on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio dos Kuricutelas in Huambo.