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Ferroviaria W vs Ponte Preta W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
5/9/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ferroviaria W69%
×Draw19%
Ponte Preta W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviaria W
2.06
Ponte Preta W
0.70

Ferroviaria W creates 194% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ferroviaria W
1.80
Ponte Preta W
0.59

allows per match

Ferroviaria W
0.80
Ponte Preta W
2.32

finishing

Ferroviaria W+0.00on par
Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviaria W ↓

Ponte Preta W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ferroviaria W or draw
88%
Ferroviaria W or Ponte Preta W
81%
Draw or Ponte Preta W
31%

Winning margin

Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
44%
Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
87%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
61%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
34%
Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
50%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
16%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
86%
Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviaria W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 79 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviaria W attack 1.80 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Ferroviaria W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ferroviaria W scores more
69%
level
19%
Ponte Preta W scores more
12%

Ferroviaria W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Ferroviaria W 1–0 Ponte Preta W

Ferroviaria W beat Ponte Preta W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo).