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Ferroviaria W vs Minas ICESP W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
5/15/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ferroviaria W63%
×Draw22%
Minas ICESP W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviaria W
1.81
Minas ICESP W
0.72

Ferroviaria W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 24 away

creates per match

Ferroviaria W
1.80
Minas ICESP W
0.63

allows per match

Ferroviaria W
0.80
Minas ICESP W
1.83

finishing

Ferroviaria W+0.00on par
Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviaria W ↓

Minas ICESP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ferroviaria W or draw
86%
Ferroviaria W or Minas ICESP W
78%
Draw or Minas ICESP W
37%

Winning margin

Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
37%
Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
84%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
54%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
27%
Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
51%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
16%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
82%
Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviaria W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 79 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviaria W attack 1.80 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + Ferroviaria W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ferroviaria W scores more
63%
level
22%
Minas ICESP W scores more
14%

Ferroviaria W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferroviaria W 1 – 0 Minas ICESP W

Ferroviaria W beat Minas ICESP W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo).