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Ferroviaria W vs Kindermann W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kindermann W
Kindermann W
5/8/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Doutor Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Ferroviaria W55%
×Draw24%
Kindermann W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviaria W
1.73
Kindermann W
0.96

Ferroviaria W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 55 away

creates per match

Ferroviaria W
1.80
Kindermann W
1.11

allows per match

Ferroviaria W
0.80
Kindermann W
1.65

finishing

Ferroviaria W+0.00on par
Kindermann W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviaria W ↓

Kindermann W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ferroviaria W or draw
79%
Ferroviaria W or Kindermann W
76%
Draw or Kindermann W
45%

Winning margin

Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
31%
Kindermann W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
82%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
52%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
25%
Kindermann W 1+ goals
62%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
25%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
73%
Kindermann W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviaria W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 79 matches

Kindermann W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviaria W attack 1.80 + Kindermann W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kindermann W attack 1.11 + Ferroviaria W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ferroviaria W scores more
55%
level
24%
Kindermann W scores more
21%

Ferroviaria W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Ferroviaria W 1–0 Kindermann W

Ferroviaria W beat Kindermann W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Adhemar de Barros in Araraquara, São Paulo.