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Ferroviaria W vs Foz-Athletico W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foz-Athletico W
Foz-Athletico W
4/10/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ferroviaria W67%
×Draw21%
Foz-Athletico W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviaria W
1.84
Foz-Athletico W
0.59

Ferroviaria W creates 212% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ferroviaria W
1.80
Foz-Athletico W
0.38

allows per match

Ferroviaria W
0.80
Foz-Athletico W
1.88

finishing

Ferroviaria W+0.00on par
Foz-Athletico W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviaria W ↓

Foz-Athletico W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ferroviaria W or draw
89%
Ferroviaria W or Foz-Athletico W
79%
Draw or Foz-Athletico W
33%

Winning margin

Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
41%
Foz-Athletico W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
84%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
55%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
28%
Foz-Athletico W 1+ goals
45%
Foz-Athletico W 2+ goals
12%
Foz-Athletico W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
86%
Foz-Athletico W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviaria W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 79 matches

Foz-Athletico W away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviaria W attack 1.80 + Foz-Athletico W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Foz-Athletico W attack 0.38 + Ferroviaria W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ferroviaria W scores more
67%
level
21%
Foz-Athletico W scores more
11%

Ferroviaria W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferroviaria W vs Foz-Athletico W

Ferroviaria W beat Foz-Athletico W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo).