Ferroviaria W 2–0 ESMAC W: Result & Stats

Ferroviaria W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ESMAC W

Laryh 84'

Camila 37'

3/6/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Doutor Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ferroviaria W71%

×Draw17%

ESMAC W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviaria WExpected goals in this matchESMAC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.90

Ferroviaria W

2.46

ESMAC W

0.90

Ferroviaria W creates 173% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Ferroviaria W

1.80

ESMAC W

1.00

allows per match

Ferroviaria W

0.80

ESMAC W

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviaria W+0.00on par

ESMAC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviaria W ↓

ESMAC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ferroviaria W or draw

88%

Ferroviaria W or ESMAC W

83%

Draw or ESMAC W

29%

Winning margin

Ferroviaria W wins by 2+

49%

ESMAC W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ferroviaria W 1+ goals

91%

Ferroviaria W 2+ goals

70%

Ferroviaria W 3+ goals

44%

ESMAC W 1+ goals

59%

ESMAC W 2+ goals

23%

ESMAC W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)

86%

ESMAC W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviaria W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 79 matches

ESMAC W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviaria W attack 1.80 + ESMAC W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.46

ESMAC W attack 1.00 + Ferroviaria W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ferroviaria W scores more

71%

level

17%

ESMAC W scores more

12%

Ferroviaria W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

L. Baiao

37'

Camila

42'

Raquel Maia← Mari

46'

Helayne← Lorraine Caixeta

56'

Emmily Karla← Carolina Valle

56'

Thaisa Renata← Larissa Sanchez

61'

Eudimilla← Suzane Pires

61'

Laryh← F. Gauto

61'

Rafa Mineira← Luana Sartório

75'

Silvani Silva← Emily Mata

82'

Kah← Aline Milene

84'

Laryh

85'

Victória Liss← Mylena

90+5'

Ferroviaria

ESMAC

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberta Batista

61'▲Eudimilla←▼Suzane Pires

61'▲Laryh←▼F. Gauto

61'▲Rafa Mineira←▼Luana Sartório

82'▲Kah←▼Aline Milene

85'▲Victória Liss←▼Mylena

Ferroviaria W substitutes

EudimillaLaryhMineiraKahLissAliceRodriguesLucileneMaísaFaustoRaissaCosmann

Manager: Mercy Nunes

42'▲Raquel Maia←▼Mari

46'▲Helayne←▼Lorraine Caixeta

56'▲Emmily Karla←▼Carolina Valle

56'▲Thaisa Renata←▼Larissa Sanchez

75'▲Silvani Silva←▼Emily Mata

ESMAC W substitutes

MaiaHelayneKarlaRenataSilvaPetryIzaRebecaMoreira