Ferroviária 5–1 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

Ferroviária

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Volta Redonda

Carlão 56'

Juninho 49'

Cássio Gabriel 38', 28'

Vitor Barreto 8'

Bruno Barra 84'

8/19/2024

Serie C · Round 18Estádio Doutor Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ferroviária50%

×Draw26%

Volta Redonda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviáriaExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.93

Ferroviária

1.47

Volta Redonda

0.93

Ferroviária creates 58% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 81 away

1.50

creates per match

1.06

0.80

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ferroviária

1.50

Volta Redonda

1.06

allows per match

Ferroviária

0.80

Volta Redonda

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviária+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ferroviária or draw

76%

Ferroviária or Volta Redonda

74%

Draw or Volta Redonda

50%

Winning margin

Ferroviária wins by 2+

25%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ferroviária 1+ goals

77%

Ferroviária 2+ goals

43%

Ferroviária 3+ goals

18%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

61%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

24%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária (draw refunded)

68%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária attack 1.50 + Volta Redonda defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Volta Redonda attack 1.06 + Ferroviária defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ferroviária scores more

50%

level

26%

Volta Redonda scores more

24%

Ferroviária at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ferroviária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

Juninho

Ferroviária · M

9.2

Match Events

8'

26'

27'

28'

38'

40'

46'

Charles← Michel

46'

Cristiano← Bruno Santos

46'

Douglas Skilo← Rafinha

46'

Marcos Júnior← Dione

49'

Juninho

56'

Carlão

58'

Pablo← Ricardinho

58'

Paulinho Santos← Antonio Xavier

60'

Juninho

69'

Denilson Goulart← Juninho

69'

Fernando← Vitor Barreto

72'

Kauã Oliveira← Henrique Silva

78'

Maycon← Jackson

84'

Bruno Barra

86'

Charles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FerroviáriaVolta

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots11

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.82

3Corners3

16Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots11

8On Target7

5Off Target4

2Blocked0

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

535Total Passes461

483Accurate Passes386

90%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5