Ferroviária 2–2 Paysandu: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ferroviária

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Paysandu

Albano 66'

Carlao 2'

Wendel 31'

Thiago Heleno 15'

10/20/2025

Serie B · Round 33Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ferroviária39%

×Draw28%

Paysandu33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviáriaExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Ferroviária

1.23

Paysandu

1.10

Ferroviária creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

1.05

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ferroviária

1.05

Paysandu

1.00

allows per match

Ferroviária

1.21

Paysandu

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviária+0.00on par

Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ferroviária or draw

67%

Ferroviária or Paysandu

72%

Draw or Paysandu

61%

Winning margin

Ferroviária wins by 2+

17%

Paysandu wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ferroviária 1+ goals

71%

Ferroviária 2+ goals

35%

Ferroviária 3+ goals

13%

Paysandu 1+ goals

67%

Paysandu 2+ goals

30%

Paysandu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária (draw refunded)

54%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária attack 1.05 + Paysandu defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Paysandu attack 1.00 + Ferroviária defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ferroviária scores more

39%

level

28%

Paysandu scores more

33%

Ferroviária at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ferroviária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Matheus Nogueira

Paysandu · G

7.9

Match Events

2'

Carlao↳ Fabricio Daniel

15'

Thiago Heleno↳ Reverson

25'

Ricardinho

31'

Wendel↳ Mauricio Garcez

36'

Vitor Barreto

45+6'

Thalisson Gabriel

46'

Gustavo Nicola← Petterson Novaes

60'

Albano← Vitor Barreto

66'

Albano↳ Juninho

68'

Thiago Lopes← Fabricio Daniel

72'

Marcelinho← Ronaldo Henrique

79'

Eric Melo← Ze Mario

79'

Tarik← Ricardinho

79'

Fabio← Juninho

79'

Lucca Carvalho← Thiago Heleno

79'

Vinicius Faria← Wendel

89'

Joao Marcos← Denner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FerroviáriaPaysandu

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots7

7Corners2

13Fouls17

Shots

20Total Shots7

10On Target3

7Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

11Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

380Total Passes344

300Accurate Passes256

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0