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Ferroviária vs Novo Hamburgo — Serie D 2018

Ferroviária
Ferroviária
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novo Hamburgo
Novo Hamburgo
4/21/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ferroviária51%
×Draw29%
Novo Hamburgo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária
1.32
Novo Hamburgo
0.72

Ferroviária creates 83% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ferroviária
1.42
Novo Hamburgo
0.78

allows per match

Ferroviária
0.65
Novo Hamburgo
1.22

finishing

Ferroviária+0.00on par
Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária ↓

Novo Hamburgo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ferroviária or draw
80%
Ferroviária or Novo Hamburgo
71%
Draw or Novo Hamburgo
49%

Winning margin

Ferroviária wins by 2+
24%
Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ferroviária 1+ goals
73%
Ferroviária 2+ goals
38%
Ferroviária 3+ goals
15%
Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals
51%
Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals
16%
Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária (draw refunded)
71%
Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 43 matches

Novo Hamburgo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária attack 1.42 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Novo Hamburgo attack 0.78 + Ferroviária defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ferroviária scores more
51%
level
29%
Novo Hamburgo scores more
20%

Ferroviária at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ferroviária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferroviária 1 – 1 Novo Hamburgo

Ferroviária and Novo Hamburgo drew 1-1 in Serie D on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Araraquara, São Paulo).